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описание решения проблем , раздел 9


The "Butterfly Effect" is the propensity of a system to be sensitive to initial conditions.Such systems over time become unpredictable,this idea gave rise to the notion of a butterfly flapping it's wings in one area of the world,causing a tornado or some such weather event to occur in another remote area of the world.
 Comparing this effect to the domino effect,is slightly misleading.There is dependence on the initial sensitivity,but whereas a simple linear row of dominoes would cause one event to initiate another similar one,the butterfly effect amplifies the condition upon each iteration.

The butterfly effect has been most commonly associated with the Weather system as this is where the discovery of "non-linear" phenomenon began when Edward Lorenz found anomalies in computer models of the weather. But Henri Poincaré had already made inroads into this area. Mapping the results in phase space" produced a two-lobe map called the Lorenz Attractor.

The word attractor meaning that events tended to be attracted towards the two lobes,and events outside of the lobes are such things like snow in the desert.

The attractor acts like an egg whisk,teasing apart parameters that may initially be close together,this is why the weather is so hard to predict. Pendulum ChaosSuper computers run several models of the weather in parallel to discover whether they stay close together or diverge away from each other.Models that stay similar in nature give an indication that the weather is relatively predictable,and are used to indicate the confidence level that Meteorologists have in a prediction.


 It is not just the weather though that is subject to such phenomena.Any "Newtonian Classical" system where one system is in competition with another,such as the "Chaotic Pendulum" which plays magnetism off against gravity will exhibit "sensitivity to initial conditions".

Predator Prey ChaosAnimal populations may also be subject to the same phenomena.Work done by Robert May,suggests that predator-prey systems have complex dynamics making them prone to "boom" and "bust",due to the difference equations that model them. Such a system even with two variables such as Rabbits and Foxes can create a system that is much more complex than would be thought to be the case.Lack of  Foxes means that the Rabbit population can increase,but increasing numbers of Rabbits means Foxes have more food and are likely to survive and reproduce,which in turn decreases the number of Rabbits.It is possible for such systems to find a steady state or equilibrium,and even though species can become extinct,there is a tendency for populations to be robust,but they can vary dramatically under certain circumstances. Real populations of course,have more than two variables making them ever more complex.But as can be seen from the diagram, such systems are not as simple as might be thought.

The chemical world is also not free from such intrusions of Belousov-Zhabotinsky Reactionnon-linearity.In certain cases chemical feedback produces effects as that in the Belousov-Zhabotinsky reaction, creating concentric rings, which are produced by a chemical change, whose decision to change from one state to another cannot be predicted.The B-Z chemical system is currently being trialled as a means to achieve artificially intelligent states in robots.
Phase space portraits of liquid flow show that they too are subject to the same kind of non-linearity that is inherent in other physical systems.It may be apparent when turning on a tap that sporadic drips become "laminar" as the flow increases.What might not be apparent is the nature of the change from semi-random to continuous.It may seem rather at odds with intuition that such natural systems have inherent behaviour that is not random,or indeed that is not capable of being predicted.It may also seem that "not random" means "predictable".

Natural systems can present a tangled mix of determinism and randomness, or "order" and  Robert May Bifurcation"chaos".In such cases as water moving from drips to continuous flow, pictures called "Bifurcation diagrams" demonstrate the nature of movement from order into chaos.This bifurcation is based on Robert May's work,but one of the intriguing things about bifurcations is that the same pattern occurs no matter what system is iterated.In fact Mitchell FilligreeFeigenbaum discovered that there was a "constant of doubling" hidden in amongst all these systems.


 Electronic apparatus is also not free from such effects,and it is perhaps ironic,that we think of electronic apparatus as as being the epitome of predictable determinism and ruthless clockwork efficiency.Indeed the powerful computers used to predict weather,would seem ineffectual if they were not ruthless automatons.But such effects occur only in certain circumstances where there is "sensitivity to initial conditions".Amplifiers for instance,produce a howl when feedback occurs as they go into a stable state of oscillation.Logic gates as used in computers have to select a "0" or a "1",and this relies on choosing between two states whose boundary is indeterminate,and it is when a computer confuses a "0" for a "1" or vice versa that mistakes occur.

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